UK | Care England has warned that workforce gains are at risk without urgent action undertaken by the Government to protect social care providers.
Care England has responded to Skills for Care’s latest report on the size and structure of the adult social care workforce with cautious optimism, warning that recent gains are built on fragile foundations that are now under threat.
The report has found that the vacancy rate in adult social care has fallen to seven percent, returning to pre-pandemic levels for the first time since 2020. The number of filled posts rose to 1.6 million, a 3.4 percent increase on the previous year, while vacancies fell by 12.4 percent, now totalling 111,000. However, the picture is far from straightforward.
“This report reflects progress, but it is progress resting on an increasingly precarious base. It would be wrong to view this as a policy success story. In truth, this rebound has been driven by international recruitment, not by structural reforms to make care a more attractive domestic career. That’s a gamble the Government is now walking away from,” said Professor Martin Green OBE, Chief Executive of Care England.
Despite the apparent gains, the foundation of this recovery is unstable. International recruitment has been the primary driver of workforce growth over the past three years, with more than 230,000 overseas staff joining the sector since 2022/23. But that pipeline is rapidly drying up: in the past year alone, the number of international recruits halved from 105,000 to 50,000, just as new immigration rules are set to restrict the Health and Care Worker visa route from July 2025.
At the same time, the number of British nationals in the workforce continues to fall, 30,000 in 2024/25 and 85,000 since 2020/21. The domestic recruitment challenge is worsening, not improving.
“We are pulling up the drawbridge just as the sector begins to stabilise. This report makes clear that the domestic workforce continues to decline at the very moment the international recruitment route is being closed off. At a time when we should be reinforcing the foundations of the sector, we’re weakening them. This is not a sustainable path. Without urgent action, today’s progress risks unravelling into tomorrow’s crisis,” added Professor Green.
The long-term picture adds to the alarm. Skills for Care projects that the sector will need 470,000 additional posts by 2040, a 27 percent increase, to meet rising demand from an ageing population. Yet the policies in place today are neither sufficient nor sustainable to meet that need.
Care England has welcomed the introduction of the Fair Pay Agreement (FPA) and Employment Rights Bill (ERB) as long-term solutions, but warns that they will take years to deliver tangible change. In the meantime, providers are facing escalating costs, uncertainty, and a shrinking pool of available staff.
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