NEW ZEALAND | Earlier Alzheimer’s diagnosis could give aged care and community providers more time to plan support, but greater diagnostic capacity will have limited value if services are not available once people receive an answer.
New Zealand modelling has estimated that every $1 invested in a more accessible Alzheimer’s diagnostic pathway could generate $18.21 in wider social and economic value. The figure is a forecast rather than an observed financial return and does not represent an $18.21 saving to Government for every dollar spent.
The analysis estimated an investment of around NZ$5.65 million could generate approximately NZ$102.87 million in social and economic value. Its modelling covered an estimated 9,055 people with likely Alzheimer’s disease, 5,146 partners and 19,015 children.
For aged care operators, retirement villages and home and community care providers, the practical issue is what greater diagnostic certainty could change before someone reaches the point of requiring more intensive support.
Earlier diagnosis can give people and their families more time to consider finances, living arrangements, legal planning and future care requirements. It can also bring people into contact with health and community services earlier.
“Making an accurate and timely diagnosis matters for people. It can reduce uncertainty, refocus management plans, and reduce the need for further investigations,” said Dr Campbell Le Heron.
He said greater certainty could help people make decisions around work, finances and living arrangements and provide earlier access to appropriate health and community support.
An estimated 83,000 people were living with dementia mate wareware in New Zealand in 2025, with around half believed to be without a diagnosis. Alzheimer’s disease accounts for approximately 70 percent of dementia cases, while the number of New Zealanders living with dementia is projected to reach around 170,000 by 2050.
The research said New Zealand does not currently have a single pathway to an Alzheimer’s diagnosis and dementia subtypes are not always consistently differentiated or communicated. That can leave families uncertain about the cause of symptoms, likely progression and appropriate management.
Blood-based biomarker testing is one possible route to improving diagnostic access. The tests provide measurable information about underlying Alzheimer’s pathology and are intended to be used alongside symptoms and wider clinical assessment, rather than as population-wide screening.
Access to more specialised investigations, including particular brain scans and spinal fluid analysis, has been limited by cost and invasiveness, said Le Heron. Blood biomarkers showed significant promise, although results still needed to be interpreted within the patient’s clinical context.
Earlier diagnosis, however, also brings another pressure point for the sector. It creates an expectation that health, community and care services will be available when people are identified earlier.
Alzheimers NZ Board member Clare Hynd welcomed testing that could support earlier diagnosis when undertaken by expert clinicians and accompanied by appropriate follow-up. She also cautioned that community dementia services were already underfunded.
That qualification is important when considering the projected social return. The value attributed to maintaining independence, planning earlier and accessing support depends partly on that support being available.
The forecast Social Return on Investment analysis was prepared by health economics consultancy HTANALYSTS and commissioned by Roche Diagnostics. New Zealand fieldwork included nine interviews with people living with mild cognitive impairment, dementia or Alzheimer’s disease and their families and carers, interviews with a geriatrician and two patient advocacy groups, and 20 completed survey responses.
The analysis did not assess a particular Roche diagnostic product. A final price and access pathway for blood-based biomarker testing in New Zealand have also not been confirmed.
For providers, earlier diagnostic certainty could move important care conversations forward by months or years. As dementia prevalence rises, the challenge will be ensuring the services required after diagnosis expand at the same pace as the ability to identify the disease.
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